A new prediction method of COVID-19 epidemic

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is a new type of infectious disease that has been massively outbroken in December 2019. So far, with the development and promotion of the vaccines against COVID-19, the epidemic throughout the world appears to be contained. In this paper, we propose a multi-layer prediction method with a SEIRD model which is improved from a classical Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. We expand the classical model by taking the effect of vaccines into account. Furthermore, we use epidemic data accessed from the U.S. government to fit the model and visualize the results, a conclusion that the U.S. will be able to contain its epidemic effectively by practicing the development and injection of vaccines can be inferred. © 2021 IEEE.