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Potential global impacts of alternative dosing regimen and rollout options for the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine.
Aguas, Ricardo; Bharath, Anouska; White, Lisa J; Gao, Bo; Pollard, Andrew J; Voysey, Merryn; Shretta, Rima.
  • Aguas R; Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Bharath A; Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • White LJ; Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Gao B; Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Pollard AJ; Oxford Vaccine Group, Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Voysey M; Oxford Vaccine Group, Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Shretta R; Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. rima.shretta@ndm.ox.ac.uk.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 6370, 2021 11 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1503481
ABSTRACT
The high efficacy, low cost, and long shelf-life of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine positions it well for use in in diverse socioeconomic settings. Using data from clinical trials, an individual-based model was constructed to predict its 6-month population-level impact. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses evaluated the importance of epidemiological, demographic and logistical factors on vaccine effectiveness. Rollout at various levels of availability and delivery speed, conditional on vaccine efficacy profiles (efficacy of each dose and interval between doses) were explored in representative countries. We highlight how expedient vaccine delivery to high-risk groups is critical in mitigating COVID-19 disease and mortality. In scenarios where the availability of vaccine is insufficient for high-risk groups to receive two doses, administration of a single dose of is optimal, even when vaccine efficacy after one dose is just 75% of the two doses. These findings can help inform allocation strategies particularly in areas constrained by availability.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Vaccines / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-26449-8

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Vaccines / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-26449-8