Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2.
Sci Rep
; 11(1): 21812, 2021 11 08.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1505841
ABSTRACT
An estimation of the impact of climatic conditions-measured with an index that combines temperature and humidity, the IPTCC-on the hospitalizations and deaths attributed to SARS-CoV-2 is proposed. The present paper uses weekly data from 54 French administrative regions between March 23, 2020 and January 10, 2021. Firstly, a Granger causal analysis is developed and reveals that past values of the IPTCC contain information that allow for a better prediction of hospitalizations or deaths than that obtained without the IPTCC. Finally, a vector autoregressive model is estimated to evaluate the dynamic response of hospitalizations and deaths after an increase in the IPTCC. It is estimated that a 10-point increase in the IPTCC causes hospitalizations to rise by 2.9% (90% CI 0.7-5.0) one week after the increase, and by 4.1% (90% CI 2.1-6.4) and 4.4% (90% CI 2.5-6.3) in the two following weeks. Over ten weeks, the cumulative effect is estimated to reach 20.1%. Two weeks after the increase in the IPTCC, deaths are estimated to rise by 3.7% (90% CI 1.6-5.8). The cumulative effect from the second to the tenth weeks reaches 15.8%. The results are robust to the inclusion of air pollution indicators.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Climate
/
Air Pollutants
/
Air Pollution
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
/
Hospitalization
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-021-01392-2
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