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Development and validation of a prognostic model for early triage of patients diagnosed with COVID-19.
An, Chansik; Oh, Hyun Cheol; Chang, Jung Hyun; Oh, Seung-Jin; Lee, Jung Mo; Han, Chang Hoon; Kim, Seong Woo.
  • An C; Research Institute, National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Goyang, Korea.
  • Oh HC; Department of Radiology, National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Goyang, Korea.
  • Chang JH; Department of Orthopedic Surgery, National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Goyang, Korea. hyuncoh@nhimc.or.kr.
  • Oh SJ; Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Goyang, Korea.
  • Lee JM; Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Goyang, Korea.
  • Han CH; Division of Pulmonology, Department of Internal Medicine, National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Goyang, Korea.
  • Kim SW; Division of Pulmonology, Department of Internal Medicine, National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Goyang, Korea.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 21923, 2021 11 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1758327
ABSTRACT
We developed a tool to guide decision-making for early triage of COVID-19 patients based on a predicted prognosis, using a Korean national cohort of 5,596 patients, and validated the developed tool with an external cohort of 445 patients treated in a single institution. Predictors chosen for our model were older age, male sex, subjective fever, dyspnea, altered consciousness, temperature ≥ 37.5 °C, heart rate ≥ 100 bpm, systolic blood pressure ≥ 160 mmHg, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, chronic kidney disease, cancer, dementia, anemia, leukocytosis, lymphocytopenia, and thrombocytopenia. In the external validation, when age, sex, symptoms, and underlying disease were used as predictors, the AUC used as an evaluation metric for our model's performance was 0.850 in predicting whether a patient will require at least oxygen therapy and 0.833 in predicting whether a patient will need critical care or die from COVID-19. The AUCs improved to 0.871 and 0.864, respectively, when additional information on vital signs and blood test results were also used. In contrast, the protocols currently recommended in Korea showed AUCs less than 0.75. An application for calculating the prognostic score in COVID-19 patients based on the results of this study is presented on our website ( https//nhimc.shinyapps.io/ih-psc/ ), where the results of the validation ongoing in our institution are periodically updated.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Cohort study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans / Middle aged Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Cohort study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans / Middle aged Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2021 Document Type: Article