The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy.
BMC Public Health
; 21(1): 2069, 2021 11 11.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1575837
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The relation between the magnitude of successive waves of the COVID-19 outbreak within the same communities could be useful in predicting the scope of new outbreaks.METHODS:
We investigated the extent to which COVID-19 mortality in Italy during the second wave was related to first wave mortality within the same provinces. We compared data on province-specific COVID-19 2020 mortality in two time periods, corresponding to the first wave (February 24-June 30, 2020) and to the second wave (September 1-December 31, 2020), using cubic spline regression.RESULTS:
For provinces with the lowest crude mortality rate in the first wave (February-June), i.e. < 22 cases/100,000/month, mortality in the second wave (September-December) was positively associated with mortality during the first wave. In provinces with mortality greater than 22/100,000/month during the first wave, higher mortality in the first wave was associated with a lower second wave mortality. Results were similar when the analysis was censored at October 2020, before the implementation of region-specific measures against the outbreak. Neither vaccination nor variant spread had any role during the study period.CONCLUSIONS:
These findings indicate that provinces with the most severe initial COVID-19 outbreaks, as assessed through mortality data, faced milder second waves.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
BMC Public Health
Journal subject:
Public Health
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S12889-021-12126-4
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