The Multi-group Susceptible Infected Recovered Model with Stage Progression: A Epidemiological Modelling of Forecasting COVID Cases in the Philippines

ABSTRACT

The chapter discusses the anti-contagion policies of the Philippine government through the implementation of different community quarantine in order to prevent the further exponential spread of Corona Virus (COVID-19) in the Philippines. The study had used the Multi-group Susceptible Recovered model with stage progression or otherwise known as heterogeneous mixing model in order to forecast and assess the impact of the anti-contagion policy of the Philippine government by incorporating heterogeneous characteristics of group of population according to age. The Multi-Group Susceptible infected recovered model enables to provide epidemiological forecast of the COVID cases that takes into account various factors such as patterns of mode of transmission of the disease, recovery rate from the disease, fatality rate based on age, the probability of transmitting the disease based on the number of contact and hours of contact, and time days of onset to either declared infected, recovered, or fatal. The result of the study revealed that the mobility of people has significant contribution to the transmission rate of COVID in the Philippines. Further, the study found that the mobilization of workers in the Philippines, who have aged 21–59 years old and who are exempted in the implementation of community quarantine and allowed to go out of home for work and some essential works and tasking, are the main drivers of fast increase in the transmission of COVID disease in the Philippines. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.