Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemics.
Elife
; 102021 10 15.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1518778
ABSTRACT
Simulating nationwide realistic individual movements with a detailed geographical structure can help optimise public health policies. However, existing tools have limited resolution or can only account for a limited number of agents. We introduce Epidemap, a new framework that can capture the daily movement of more than 60 million people in a country at a building-level resolution in a realistic and computationally efficient way. By applying it to the case of an infectious disease spreading in France, we uncover hitherto neglected effects, such as the emergence of two distinct peaks in the daily number of cases or the importance of local density in the timing of arrival of the epidemic. Finally, we show that the importance of super-spreading events strongly varies over time.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Public Health
/
Communicable Diseases
/
Epidemics
/
COVID-19
/
Geography
Type of study:
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
ELife.71417
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