FORECAST THE RESONABLE SCALE OF STATE BUDGET COLLECTION IN VIETNAM IN THE PERIOD OF 2021-2025, ORIENTATION TO 2030

ABSTRACT

Forecasting the reasonable scale of state budget collection is one of the important tasks in the administration of macroeconomic policy in general and budgetary financial policy in particular. In budget management, a reasonable scale of state budget collection is the basis for directing and administering budget management and at the same time a basis for researching and promulgating policies and directions for socio-economic development, especially in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic, which began to occur at the end of 2019 in China and the beginning of 2020 in Vietnam, caused difficulties and challenges for the world economy and society as well as in Vietnam. The current focus of Vietnam is to effectively implement the "dual goal" of preventing and fighting epidemics, protecting people's health, and recovering and developing social economics in a new normal state;completing the socioeconomic development and state budget estimation plans. The article uses the ARIMA method to forecast the ratio of state budget collection to GDP in Vietnam for the period of 2021-2025 and orientation to 2030, thereby giving some implications in forecasting Vietnamese state budget collection.