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COVID-19 risk assessment at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games.
Murakami, Michio; Miura, Fuminari; Kitajima, Masaaki; Fujii, Kenkichi; Yasutaka, Tetsuo; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Ono, Kyoko; Shimazu, Yuzo; Sorano, Sumire; Okuda, Tomoaki; Ozaki, Akihiko; Katayama, Kotoe; Nishikawa, Yoshitaka; Kobashi, Yurie; Sawano, Toyoaki; Abe, Toshiki; Saito, Masaya M; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Naito, Wataru; Imoto, Seiya.
  • Murakami M; Department of Health Risk Communication, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine, 1 Hikarigaoka, Fukushima, Fukushima, 960-1295, Japan.
  • Miura F; Center for Marine Environmental Studies (CMES), Ehime University, 3 Bunkyo, Matsuyama, Ehime, 790-8577, Japan.
  • Kitajima M; Division of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, North 13 West 8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-8628, Japan.
  • Fujii K; R&D-Hygiene Science Research Center, Kao Corporation, 2-1-3, Bunka, Sumida, Tokyo, 131-8501, Japan.
  • Yasutaka T; Institute for Geo-Resources and Environment, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), 1-1-1 Higashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8567, Japan.
  • Iwasaki Y; Research Institute of Science for Safety and Sustainability, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), 16-1, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8569, Japan.
  • Ono K; Research Institute of Science for Safety and Sustainability, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), 16-1, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8569, Japan.
  • Shimazu Y; Department of Anesthesiology, Southern TOHOKU Research Institute for Neuroscience, Southern TOHOKU General Hospital 7-115, Yatsuyamada, Koriyama, Fukushima, 963-8563, Japan.
  • Sorano S; Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.
  • Okuda T; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, 1-14 Bunkyomachi, Nagasaki, 852-8521, Japan.
  • Ozaki A; Department of Applied Chemistry, Faculty of Science and Technology, Keio University, 3-14-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 223-8522, Japan.
  • Katayama K; Department of Breast Surgery, Jyoban Hospital of Tokiwa Foundation, 57 Kaminodai, Jyobankamiyunagaya, Iwaki, Fukushima, 972-8322, Japan.
  • Nishikawa Y; Division of Health Medical Intelligence, Human Genome Center, The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Shirokanedai, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 108-8639, Japan.
  • Kobashi Y; Department of Health Informatics, Kyoto University School of Public Health, Yoshida-Konoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan.
  • Sawano T; Department of Internal Medicine, Seireikai Group Hirata Central Hospital, 4, Shimizuuchi, Kamiyomogita, Hirata, Ishikawa District, Fukushima, 963-8202 Japan.
  • Abe T; Department of Surgery, Sendai City Medical Center, Sendai Open Hospital, 5-22-1, Tsurugaya, Miyagino, Sendai, Miyagi, 983-0824, Japan.
  • Saito MM; Department of Rehabilitation, Southern TOHOKU Research Institute for Neuroscience, Southern TOHOKU General Hospital, 7-115, Yatsuyamada, Koriyama, Fukushima, 963-8563, Japan.
  • Tsubokura M; Department of Information Security, Faculty of Information Systems, University of Nagasaki, 1-1-1, Manabino, Nagayocho, Nishisonogigun, Nagasaki, 851-2195, Japan.
  • Naito W; Department of Radiation Health Management, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine, 1 Hikarigaoka, Fukushima, Fukushima, 960-1295, Japan.
  • Imoto S; Research Institute of Science for Safety and Sustainability, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), 16-1, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8569, Japan.
Microb Risk Anal ; 19: 100162, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1525906
ABSTRACT
The 2020 Olympic/Paralympic Games have been postponed to 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a model that integrated source-environment-receptor pathways to evaluate how preventive efforts can reduce the infection risk among spectators at the opening ceremony of Tokyo Olympic Games. We simulated viral loads of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emitted from infectors through talking/coughing/sneezing and modeled temporal environmental behaviors, including virus inactivation and transfer. We performed Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the expected number of newly infected individuals with and without preventive measures, yielding the crude probability of a spectator being an infector among the 60,000 people expected to attend the opening ceremony. Two indicators, i.e., the expected number of newly infected individuals and the newly infected individuals per infector entry, were proposed to demonstrate the extent of achievable infection risk reduction levels by implementing possible preventive measures. A no-prevention scenario produced 1.5-1.7 newly infected individuals per infector entry, whereas a combination of cooperative preventive measures by organizers and the spectators achieved a 99% risk reduction, corresponding to 0.009-0.012 newly infected individuals per infector entry. The expected number of newly infected individuals was calculated as 0.005 for the combination of cooperative preventive scenarios with the crude probability of a spectator being an infector of 1 × 10-5. Based on our estimates, a combination of cooperative preventions between organizers and spectators is required to prevent a viral spread at the Tokyo Olympic/Paralympic Games. Further, under the assumption that society accepts < 10 newly infected persons traced to events held during the entire Olympic/Paralympic Games, we propose a crude probability of infectors of < 5 × 10-5 as a benchmark for the suppression of the infection. This is the first study to develop a model that can assess the infection risk among spectators due to exposure pathways at a mass gathering event.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Microb Risk Anal Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.mran.2021.100162

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Microb Risk Anal Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.mran.2021.100162