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COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya.
Brand, Samuel P C; Ojal, John; Aziza, Rabia; Were, Vincent; Okiro, Emelda A; Kombe, Ivy K; Mburu, Caroline; Ogero, Morris; Agweyu, Ambrose; Warimwe, George M; Nyagwange, James; Karanja, Henry; Gitonga, John N; Mugo, Daisy; Uyoga, Sophie; Adetifa, Ifedayo M O; Scott, J Anthony G; Otieno, Edward; Murunga, Nickson; Otiende, Mark; Ochola-Oyier, Lynette I; Agoti, Charles N; Githinji, George; Kasera, Kadondi; Amoth, Patrick; Mwangangi, Mercy; Aman, Rashid; Ng'ang'a, Wangari; Tsofa, Benjamin; Bejon, Philip; Keeling, Matt J; Nokes, D James; Barasa, Edwine.
  • Brand SPC; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Ojal J; The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Warwick, UK.
  • Aziza R; School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Warwick, UK.
  • Were V; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Okiro EA; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, UK.
  • Kombe IK; The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Warwick, UK.
  • Mburu C; School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Warwick, UK.
  • Ogero M; Health Economics Research Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.
  • Agweyu A; Population Health Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.
  • Warimwe GM; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Nyagwange J; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Karanja H; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Gitonga JN; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Mugo D; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Uyoga S; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Adetifa IMO; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Scott JAG; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Otieno E; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Murunga N; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Otiende M; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Ochola-Oyier LI; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Agoti CN; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Githinji G; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Kasera K; Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Amoth P; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Mwangangi M; Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Aman R; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Ng'ang'a W; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Tsofa B; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Bejon P; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Keeling MJ; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Nokes DJ; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Barasa E; Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya.
Science ; 374(6570): 989-994, 2021 Nov 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1526450
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ABSTRACT
Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or infection spreads to susceptible subpopulations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socioeconomic and urban­rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Africa Language: English Journal: Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Science.abk0414

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Africa Language: English Journal: Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Science.abk0414