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Estimation of the number of preventable COVID-19 deaths in relation to the restrictive measures adopted in Europe.
Cernuda-Martínez, José A; Fernández-García, Andrea.
  • Cernuda-Martínez JA; Faculty of Nursing, Universidad de Oviedo, Gijon.
  • Fernández-García A; Health Service, Principality of Asturias, Spain.
Gac Med Mex ; 157(3): 271-276, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1535084
ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION:

In December 2019, a new coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, China, which has become a global health problem.

OBJECTIVES:

To estimate how many daily COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population could have been avoided if each one of five restrictive measures had been implemented at the time the first case was diagnosed, and to estimate a multiple linear regression model predictive of the number of deaths per 100,000 population.

METHODS:

A simple linear regression was performed between the days elapsed since the first COVID-19 diagnosed case, implementation of each one of the five restrictive measures carried out by the 39 European studied countries, the number of hospital beds per 1,000 population (independent variables) and the number of COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population.

RESULTS:

For each day elapsed from the first COVID-19 reported case to the adoption of restrictive measures, between 0.611 (p = 0.004) and 1.863 (p = 0.000) patients died per 100,000 population, depending on the implemented measure.

CONCLUSIONS:

Restrictive measures and social distancing, as well as promptness of their implementation, are necessary for achieving a decrease in COVID-19 infections and mortality.
RESUMEN

INTRODUCCIÓN:

En diciembre de 2019 surgió un nuevo coronavirus en Wuhan, China, que se ha convertido en un problema de salud global.

OBJETIVO:

Estimar cuántos fallecimientos diarios atribuibles a COVID-19 por cada 100 000 habitantes se podrían haber evitado si se hubiese llevado a cabo cada una de las cinco medidas restrictivas al momento del diagnóstico del primer caso, así como estimar un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple predictivo del número de fallecimientos por cada 100 000 habitantes.

MÉTODOS:

Se realizó un modelo de regresión lineal simple entre los días transcurridos desde el primer caso diagnosticado de COVID-19, la implantación de cada una de las cinco medidas llevadas a cabo por los 39 países europeos estudiados, el número de camas hospitalarias por 1000 habitantes (variables independientes) y el número de fallecimientos por COVID-19 por 100 000 habitantes.

RESULTADOS:

Por cada día transcurrido desde el primer caso notificado de COVID-19 hasta la adopción de las medidas restrictivas, fallecieron entre 0.611 (p = 0.004) y 1.863 (p = 0.000) pacientes por cada 100 000 habitantes, dependiendo de la medida implementada.

CONCLUSIONES:

Las medidas restrictivas y el distanciamiento social, así como la celeridad de su instauración, son necesarios para lograr el descenso del número de contagios de COVID-19 y su mortalidad.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Physical Distancing / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Gac Med Mex Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Physical Distancing / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Gac Med Mex Year: 2021 Document Type: Article