Using Fuzzy AHP-PROMETHEE for Market Risk Assessment of New-Build River Cruises on the Yangtze River

ABSTRACT

Cruise tourism on the Yangtze River Basin has developed rapidly in recent years. However, it is still facing such challenges as homogenization of itinerary and shore attraction arrangement, as well as aging cruise ships and simplification of service facilities, while it is also difficult to satisfy hierarchical and personalized tourist needs. To change such circumstances, new-build river cruise ships are inevitable. Complexity of market supply and demand environment, together with variability of tourist preferences, have increased market uncertainties of new-build cruise products. This study aims to assess market risks of new-build river cruise ships first by identifying risk factors, from the perspective of supply and demand under the actual conditions of the Yangtze River cruise market, then by evaluating potential impacts, caused by risk factors based on multi-criteria decision-making considerations. Fuzzy AHP-PROMETHEE was employed to prioritize the risk factors. The results reveal that among the most significant market risk factors are the following, in sequence backwardness of support facilities;sudden security crisis;homogenization of cruise products;simplification of tourism route design;and inadequate management of the tourism market. Such findings will provide beneficial insights for strategic and sustainable development of river cruises on the Yangtze River.