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Excess deaths from COVID-19 in Japan and 47 prefectures from January through June 2021.
Nomura, S; Eguchi, A; Tanoue, Y; Yoneoka, D; Kawashima, T; Suzuki, M; Hashizume, M.
  • Nomura S; Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research, Tokyo, Japan. Electronic address: nom3.shu@gmail.com.
  • Eguchi A; Department of Sustainable Health Science, Center for Preventive Medical Sciences, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan.
  • Tanoue Y; Institute for Business and Finance, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Yoneoka D; Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan; Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Kawashima T; Department of Mathematical and Computing Science, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Suzuki M; Center for Surveillance, Immunization, and Epidemiologic Research, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan.
  • Hashizume M; Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Public Health ; 203: 15-18, 2022 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1550037
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES:

In Japan, several studies have reported no excess all-cause deaths (the difference between the observed and expected number of deaths) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. This study aimed to estimate the weekly excess deaths in Japan's 47 prefectures for 2021 until June 27. STUDY

DESIGN:

Vital statistical data on deaths were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. For this analysis, we used data from January 2012 to June 2021.

METHODS:

A quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the expected weekly number of deaths. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the one-sided prediction interval.

RESULTS:

Since January 2021, excess deaths were observed for the first time in the week corresponding to April 12-18 and have continued through mid-June, with the highest excess percentage occurring in the week corresponding to May 31-June 6 (excess deaths 1431-2587; excess percentage 5.95-10.77%). Similarly, excess deaths were observed in consecutive weeks from April to June 2021 in 18 of 47 prefectures.

CONCLUSIONS:

For the first time since February 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was reported in Japan, excess deaths possibly related to COVID-19 were observed in April 2021 in Japan, during the fourth wave. This may reflect the deaths of non-infected people owing to the disruption that the pandemic has caused.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Public Health Year: 2022 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Public Health Year: 2022 Document Type: Article