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Modeling serological testing to inform relaxation of social distancing for COVID-19 control.
Kraay, Alicia N M; Nelson, Kristin N; Zhao, Conan Y; Demory, David; Weitz, Joshua S; Lopman, Benjamin A.
  • Kraay ANM; Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA. amullis@emory.edu.
  • Nelson KN; Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Zhao CY; School of Biological Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Demory D; Interdisciplinary Graduate Program in Quantitative Biosciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Weitz JS; School of Biological Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Lopman BA; School of Biological Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 7063, 2021 12 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1550283
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ABSTRACT
Serological testing remains a passive component of the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a transmission model, we examine how serological testing could have enabled seropositive individuals to increase their relative levels of social interaction while offsetting transmission risks. We simulate widespread serological testing in New York City, South Florida, and Washington Puget Sound and assume seropositive individuals partially restore their social contacts. Compared to no intervention, our model suggests that widespread serological testing starting in late 2020 would have averted approximately 3300 deaths in New York City, 1400 deaths in South Florida and 11,000 deaths in Washington State by June 2021. In all sites, serological testing blunted subsequent waves of transmission. Findings demonstrate the potential benefit of widespread serological testing, had it been implemented in the pre-vaccine era, and remain relevant now amid the potential for emergence of new variants.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / Physical Distancing / COVID-19 Serological Testing / COVID-19 / Epidemiological Models Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Long Covid / Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-26774-y

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / Physical Distancing / COVID-19 Serological Testing / COVID-19 / Epidemiological Models Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Long Covid / Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-021-26774-y