Modeling serological testing to inform relaxation of social distancing for COVID-19 control.
Nat Commun
; 12(1): 7063, 2021 12 03.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1550283
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Serological testing remains a passive component of the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a transmission model, we examine how serological testing could have enabled seropositive individuals to increase their relative levels of social interaction while offsetting transmission risks. We simulate widespread serological testing in New York City, South Florida, and Washington Puget Sound and assume seropositive individuals partially restore their social contacts. Compared to no intervention, our model suggests that widespread serological testing starting in late 2020 would have averted approximately 3300 deaths in New York City, 1400 deaths in South Florida and 11,000 deaths in Washington State by June 2021. In all sites, serological testing blunted subsequent waves of transmission. Findings demonstrate the potential benefit of widespread serological testing, had it been implemented in the pre-vaccine era, and remain relevant now amid the potential for emergence of new variants.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
Physical Distancing
/
COVID-19 Serological Testing
/
COVID-19
/
Epidemiological Models
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Long Covid
/
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Science
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41467-021-26774-y
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