Parameter estimation for sars-cov-2 model in ecuador in presence of uncertainty
Revista Politecnica
; 47(1):7-16, 2021.
Article
in Spanish
| Scopus | ID: covidwho-1552145
ABSTRACT
In this article we present the mathematical compartmental SARS-CoV-2 model, with asymptomatic patients, used by the Research Center on Mathematical Modelling (MODEMAT) to study the spread of the virus in Ecuador, as well as the developed Bayesian variational approach to estimate the model parameters, under uncertainty of the observed data. Thanks to this framework, we are able to estimate periodically the effective reproduction number and carry out short-term forecasts, using an ensemble method, of the incidence of the epidemic. © 2021, �Escuela Politecnica Nacional. All rights reserved.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
Scopus
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Ecuador
Language:
Spanish
Journal:
Revista Politecnica
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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