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How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.
Waterlow, Naomi R; van Leeuwen, Edwin; Davies, Nicholas G; Flasche, Stefan; Eggo, Rosalind M.
  • Waterlow NR; Centre for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC14 7HT, United Kingdom; naomi.waterlow1@lshtm.ac.uk.
  • van Leeuwen E; Centre for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC14 7HT, United Kingdom.
  • Davies NG; Statistics, Modelling and Economics Department, UK Health Security Agency, London NW9 5EQ, United Kingdom.
  • Eggo RM; Centre for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC14 7HT, United Kingdom.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(49)2021 12 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1556254
ABSTRACT
We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Coronavirus Infections Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Coronavirus Infections Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Article