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Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil.
Chagas, Eduarda T C; Barros, Pedro H; Cardoso-Pereira, Isadora; Ponte, Igor V; Ximenes, Pablo; Figueiredo, Flávio; Murai, Fabricio; Couto da Silva, Ana Paula; Almeida, Jussara M; Loureiro, Antonio A F; Ramos, Heitor S.
  • Chagas ETC; Department of Computer Science, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Barros PH; Department of Computer Science, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Cardoso-Pereira I; Department of Computer Science, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Ponte IV; Department of Motor Vehicles, Government of the State of Ceará, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil.
  • Ximenes P; Department of Motor Vehicles, Government of the State of Ceará, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil.
  • Figueiredo F; School of Cybersecurity and Privacy, College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
  • Murai F; Department of Computer Science, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Couto da Silva AP; Department of Computer Science, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Almeida JM; Department of Computer Science, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Loureiro AAF; Department of Computer Science, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Ramos HS; Department of Computer Science, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
PLoS One ; 16(12): e0260610, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1556868
ABSTRACT
This article proposes a study of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread and the efficacy of public policies in Brazil. Using both aggregated (from large Internet companies) and fine-grained (from Departments of Motor Vehicles) mobility data sources, our work sheds light on the effect of mobility on the pandemic situation in the Brazilian territory. Our main contribution is to show how mobility data, particularly fine-grained ones, can offer valuable insights into virus propagation. For this, we propose a modification in the SENUR model to add mobility information, evaluating different data availability scenarios (different information granularities), and finally, we carry out simulations to evaluate possible public policies. In particular, we conduct a case study that shows, through simulations of hypothetical scenarios, that the contagion curve in several Brazilian cities could have been milder if the government had imposed mobility restrictions soon after reporting the first case. Our results also show that if the government had not taken any action and the only safety measure taken was the population's voluntary isolation (out of fear), the time until the contagion peak for the first wave would have been postponed, but its value would more than double.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 / Movement Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: South America / Brazil Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0260610

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 / Movement Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: South America / Brazil Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0260610