Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Tajikistan

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a global public health response. In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in Tajikistan. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Tajikistan for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the model applied in this paper indicate that the model is stable. The COVID-19 pandemic, as revealed by our forecasts is still and will remain significantly low in Tajikistan, for the next 4 months (that is, April 2021 – July 2021). The government should continue to implement control and preventive measures including vaccinations in order to save as many lives as possible.