Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Liechtenstein

ABSTRACT

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 new cases in Liechtenstein. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 26 March – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases in Liechtenstein are likely to rise up to around 55 cases per day over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of Liechtenstein to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.