Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in San Marino

ABSTRACT

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily new cases of COVID-19 in San Marino. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in San Marino for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting daily new cases of COVID-19 in the country. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases in San Marino are likely to significantly decline over the out-of-sample period. We, however;still recommend that the government of San Mario should ensure adherence to lock-down measures while creating massive awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic as well as scaling up vaccinations.