Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Trinidad & Tobago

ABSTRACT

The need for forecasting the future trend of COVID-19 is at its highest levels now. Forecasting the disease progression will lessen the burden of health workers in terms of managing the pandemic. Trinidad & Tobago, just like any other resource-limited country, is in need of accurate forecasts of the COVID-19 cases, in order to be “on top” of the virus. In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in the country. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Trinidad and Tobago for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of our model indicate that the model is stable and acceptable for predicting daily new COVID-19 cases in Trinidad & Tobago. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Trinidad and Tobago are likely to remain high over the out-of-sample period. Relevant authorities, especially the ministry responsible for public health;have a big role to play in terms of controlling the further spread of the virus. There is need for continued implementation of control and prevention strategies in the country, especially the vaccinations.