Different Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and Influenza Suggest the Relative Efficiency of Isolation/Quarantine and Social Distancing Against COVID-19 in China.
Clin Infect Dis
; 73(11): e4305-e4311, 2021 12 06.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1560822
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are vital to reducing transmission risks. However, the relative efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 remains controversial, since social distancing and isolation/quarantine were implemented almost at the same time in China.METHODS:
In this study, surveillance data of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in 2018-2020 were used to quantify the relative efficiency of NPIs against COVID-19 in China, since isolation/quarantine was not used for the influenza epidemics. Given that the relative age-dependent susceptibility to influenza and COVID-19 may vary, an age-structured susceptible/infected/recovered model was built to explore the efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 under different population susceptibility scenarios.RESULTS:
The mean effective reproductive number, Rt, of COVID-19 before NPIs was 2.12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.02-2.21). By 11 March 2020, the overall reduction in Rt of COVID-19 was 66.1% (95% CI, 60.1-71.2%). In the epidemiological year 2019-20, influenza transmissibility was reduced by 34.6% (95% CI, 31.3-38.2%) compared with transmissibility in epidemiological year 2018-19. Under the observed contact pattern changes in China, social distancing had similar efficiency against COVID-19 in 3 different scenarios. By assuming the same efficiency of social distancing against seasonal influenza and COVID-19 transmission, isolation/quarantine and social distancing could lead to 48.1% (95% CI, 35.4-58.1%) and 34.6% (95% CI, 31.3-38.2%) reductions of the transmissibility of COVID-19, respectively.CONCLUSIONS:
Though isolation/quarantine is more effective than social distancing, given that the typical basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is 2-3, isolation/quarantine alone could not contain the COVID-19 pandemic effectively in China.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Influenza, Human
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Clin Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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