Trends and prediction in daily incidence of novel coronavirus infection in China, Hubei Province and Wuhan City: an application of Farr's law.
Am J Transl Res
; 12(4): 1355-1361, 2020.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-156099
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The recent outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has infected tens of thousands of patients in China. Studies have forecasted future trends of the incidence of 2019-nCoV infection, but appeared unsuccessful. Farr's law is a classic epidemiology theory/practice for predicting epidemics. Therefore, we used and validated a model based on Farr's law to predict the daily-incidence of 2019-nCoV infection in China and 2 regions of high-incidence.METHODS:
We extracted the 2019-nCoV incidence data of China, Hubei Province and Wuhan City from websites of the Chinese and Hubei health commissions. A model based on Farr's law was developed using the data available on Feb. 8, 2020, and used to predict daily-incidence of 2019-nCoV infection in China, Hubei Province and Wuhan City afterward.RESULTS:
We observed 50,995 (37,001 on or before Feb. 8) incident cases in China from January 16 to February 15, 2020. The daily-incidence has peaked in China, Hubei Providence and Wuhan City, but with different downward slopes. If no major changes occur, our model shows that the daily-incidence of 2019-nCoV will drop to single-digit by February 25 for China and Hubei Province, but by March 8 for Wuhan city. However, predicted 75% confidence intervals of daily-incidence in all 3 regions of interest had an upward trend. The predicted trends overall match the prospectively-collected data, confirming usefulness of these models.CONCLUSIONS:
This study shows the daily-incidence of 2019-nCoV in China, Hubei Province and Wuhan City has reached the peak and was decreasing. However, there is a possibility of upward trend.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
Am J Transl Res
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
China
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