Predicting the Rate of Transmission of Viral Diseases Using GARCH

ABSTRACT

As the effect of COVID-19 is increasing rapidly every day, it becomes very difficult for the survival of many people, and there is a high effect on the economic situations of every country which is affected by it. In the same way, it is affecting all states of India and causing an economic crisis. This paper deals with the analysis of the impact caused by COVID-19 on each state in India and also gives an estimated date on which the effect will reduce and may even become zero along with the analysis report of overall India. For the predicting of the effect, we have used generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) algorithm which has produced root mean squared error (RMSE) of around 5.89 for some of the states and other with 20.05 due to the data abnormality. The predicted data for each state is projected in the figures using the line plots. And the resulted graphs are explained clearly. The accuracy of the proposed model is around 94.6%–96.8% for the states with good data and less RMSE and 80% for the states with abnormal data and high RMSE value. From the produced results of the proposed methodology, the dates of which the effect of COVID-19 will decrease are calculated for the states having a high number of cases. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.