Kriging Prediction for Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Portoviejo—Ecuador

ABSTRACT

Currently, governments apply strict confinements to prevent the spread of SARS-COV-2, in addition, a population is complied the biosafety measures, however, the virus has mutated. When a contagious area is known, that can be helped to define restrictions then the increase is minimized, predictions of contagions are important where the virus spreads. In this work, the simple, ordinary, and universal kriging methods are presented for the prediction of infected and non-infected people in Portoviejo, Ecuador. That is shown that kriging methods are adequately estimated infected and non-infected people in the canton of Portoviejo, the result variable in a PCR test for COVID-19 is considered. The efficiency of the forecasts of the model is compared, reproducing accuracy in the estimates, where the ordinary kriging has best approximation to real data with respect to others methods. Finally, one goodness-of-fit measure to validate the performance of the model is used, obtaining insignificant estimation error. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.