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Epidemiological features of COVID-19 patients with prolonged incubation period and its implications for controlling the epidemics in China.
Zhang, Zhi-Jie; Che, Tian-Le; Wang, Tao; Zhao, Han; Hong, Jie; Su, Qing; Zhang, Hai-Yang; Zhou, Shi-Xia; Teng, Ai-Ying; Zhang, Yuan-Yuan; Yang, Yang; Fang, Li-Qun; Liu, Wei.
  • Zhang ZJ; Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, P. R. China.
  • Che TL; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, P. R. China.
  • Wang T; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China.
  • Zhao H; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China.
  • Hong J; School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, P. R. China.
  • Su Q; Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, P. R. China.
  • Zhang HY; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, P. R. China.
  • Zhou SX; Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, P. R. China.
  • Teng AY; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, P. R. China.
  • Zhang YY; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China.
  • Yang Y; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China.
  • Fang LQ; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China.
  • Liu W; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, P. R. China.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 2239, 2021 12 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1566517
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

COVID-19 patients with long incubation period were reported in clinical practice and tracing of close contacts, but their epidemiological or clinical features remained vague.

METHODS:

We analyzed 11,425 COVID-19 cases reported between January-August, 2020 in China. The accelerated failure time model, Logistic and modified Poisson regression models were used to investigate the determinants of prolonged incubation period, as well as their association with clinical severity and transmissibility, respectively.

RESULT:

Among local cases, 268 (10.2%) had a prolonged incubation period of > 14 days, which was more frequently seen among elderly patients, those residing in South China, with disease onset after Level I response measures administration, or being exposed in public places. Patients with prolonged incubation period had lower risk of severe illness (ORadjusted = 0.386, 95% CI 0.203-0.677). A reduced transmissibility was observed for the primary patients with prolonged incubation period (50.4, 95% CI 32.3-78.6%) than those with an incubation period of ≤14 days.

CONCLUSIONS:

The study provides evidence supporting a prolonged incubation period that exceeded 2 weeks in over 10% for COVID-19. Longer monitoring periods than 14 days for quarantine or persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2 should be justified in extreme cases, especially for those elderly.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Infectious Disease Incubation Period / Epidemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: BMC Public Health Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Infectious Disease Incubation Period / Epidemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: BMC Public Health Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article