How Is the Risk of Major Sudden Infectious Epidemic Transmitted? A Grounded Theory Analysis Based on COVID-19 in China.

ABSTRACT

The outbreak of a sudden infectious epidemic often causes serious casualties and property losses to the whole society. The COVID-19 epidemic that broke out in China at the end of December 2019, spread rapidly, resulting in large groups of confirmed diagnoses, and causing severe damage to China's society. This epidemic even now encompasses the globe. This paper takes the COVID-19 epidemic that has occurred in China as an example, the original data of this paper is derived from 20 Chinese media reports on COVID-19, and the grounded theory is used to analyze the original data to find the risk transmission rules of a sudden infectious epidemic. The results show that in the risk transmission of a sudden infectious epidemic, there are six basic elements the risk source, the risk early warning, the risk transmission path, the risk transmission victims, the risk transmission inflection point, and the end of risk transmission. After a sudden infectious epidemic breaks out, there are three risk transmission paths, namely, a medical system risk transmission path, a social system risk transmission path, and a psychological risk transmission path, and these three paths present a coupling structure. These findings in this paper suggest that people should strengthen the emergency management of a sudden infectious epidemic by controlling of the risk source, establishing an efficient and scientific risk early warning mechanism and blocking of the risk transmission paths. The results of this study can provide corresponding policy implications for the emergency management of sudden public health events.