Seroprevalence and attainment of herd immunity against SARS CoV-2: A modelling study.
J Family Med Prim Care
; 10(11): 4030-4035, 2021 Nov.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1573607
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
The present study aims to predict the likelihood of and likely time required to attain herd immunity against COVID-19 in New Delhi due to natural infection.METHOD:
An ODE-based mathematical model was constructed by extending the classical SEIR model to predict the seroprevalence rate. We estimated the parameter values for Delhi using available data (reported cases and the seroprevalence rate) and used them for future prediction. Also, changes in the seroprevalence rate with different possibilities of reinfection were predicted.RESULTS:
Maximum seroprevalence rate obtained through our model is 31.65% and also a reduction in the seroprevalence rate was observed for the upcoming one month (month of January, 2021) due to the reduced transmission rate. After increasing the transmission rate to the value same as the third wave in New Delhi, we obtained a maximum value of 54.96%. This maximum value significantly decreased with the reduction in the reinfection possibilities. Also, a little impact of the duration of persistence of antibodies, 180 vs 105 days, was observed on the maximum seroprevalence.CONCLUSION:
This modelling study suggests that natural infection alone, as gauged by serial sero-surveys, may not result in attainment of herd immunity in the state of Delhi.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
J Family Med Prim Care
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Jfmpc.jfmpc_830_21
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