Investigating the transmission risk of infectious disease outbreaks through the Aotearoa Co-incidence Network (ACN): a population-based study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases presents a significant challenge to public health and broader society. This study utilises novel nationwide data to calculate the transmission risk and potential inequity of infectious disease outbreaks through use of network analysis. METHODS: Nationwide employment and education microdata (∼4.7 million individuals in Aotearoa New Zealand) were used to develop the Aotearoa Co-incidence Network (ACN). The ACN considers connections generated when individuals are employed at the same workplaces or enrolled at the same schools. Through forms of network analysis, connections between geospatial areas can be established and provide proxy measures of infectious disease transmission risk. The ACN was also overlayed with nationwide population vulnerability data based on the number of older adults (>65 years) and individuals with long-term health conditions. FINDINGS: We identify areas that have both high potential transmission risk (i.e., highly connected) and high vulnerability to infectious diseases. Community detection identified geographic boundaries that can be relevant to the application of regional restrictions for limiting infectious disease transmission. INTERPRETATION: Integrating novel network science and geospatial analytics provides a simple way to study infectious disease transmission risk and population vulnerability to outbreaks. Our replicable method has utility for researchers globally with access to such data. It can help inform equitable preparation for, and responses to infectious disease outbreaks. FUNDING: This project was funded by the Health Research Council of New Zealand (20/1442) and from the NZ Government via Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment and Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.