CORRELATION between MORTALITY DUE to COVID-19, WEALTH INDEX, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT and POPULATION DENSITY in DISTRICTS of METROPOLITAN LIMA during 2020

ABSTRACT

Objectives: To determine the correlation between mortality from COVID-19 and the percentage of poverty and the district Human Development Index (HDI) in the department of Lima. Methods: Ecological observational correlation study. The population were patients who died from COVID-19 in metropolitan Lima. All deceased patients reported in the open database of the Ministry of Health were included. The dependent variable was the mortality from COVID-19 calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the total population of the districts and the independent variables were the percentage of poverty and HDI. A secondary analysis was performed evaluating the fatality from COVID-19. The correlation was calculated using Spearman's non-parametric method. Results: 13,154 people died from COVID-19 during the period from March to September, the majority were male with an average age of 66 years. No significant correlation was found between mortality and percentage of poverty (rho = -0.2230;p = 0.15). A significant correlation was found between mortality from COVID-19 and IDH (rho = 0.4466;p = 0.002). Mortality was correlated with population density (rho = 0.7616;p = <0.001). A positive (rho = 0.32) and significant (p = 0.037) correlation was found between fatality and the percentage of poverty. A significant correlation was found between COVID-19 fatality and population density (rho = 0.7616;p = <0.001). No significant correlation was found between lethality and the HDI. Conclusions: Population density was the factor most consistently associated with mortality and fatality from COVID. Poverty was associated with higher fatality, but not higher mortality.