Investigations on the Control of COVID-19 and Suggestions for Re-Open Based on Model Study

ABSTRACT

Data-based analysis gives out an estimation of the incubation period. A dynamic model is established and discussed. Disease reproduction number reveals the high probability of COVID-19 pandemic, but strengthening the exposure of asymptomatic people will help to curb the transmission, and measures of contact-tracking and stay-at-home play a replaceable role. Discussions point out that social disruption can be avoided if the contact tracking rate can be more than 0.5. Investigations for re-opening show that a city of the same size as Wuhan can be reopened if new cases are continuously below 1000 for a few days and when they are less than 500, with the assurance of contact tracking associated with extensive testing. In short, tracking and testing are the prioritized strategies, while maintaining awareness can shorten the epidemic period and mobility restrictions can be avoided.