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Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and China's Export Fluctuation in the Post-pandemic Era: An Empirical Analysis based on the TVP-SV-VAR Model.
Hu, Guoheng; Liu, Shan.
  • Hu G; School of Business, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang, China.
  • Liu S; School of Business, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang, China.
Front Public Health ; 9: 788171, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1581103
ABSTRACT
In the COVID-19 pandemic, the bidirectional policy adopted by the governments to stimulate domestic economy and reinforce foreign trade control is making the trade environment abnormally complex. China is facing a new challenge in export trade growth. Based on the continuous monthly data from January 2002 to April 2021, this paper uses the time-varying TVP-SV-VAR model to study the impulse response of China's export trade to economic policy uncertainty (EPU). It is found that (1) on the whole, the shock of global EPU and China's EPU on China's export to the OBOR/RCEP member countries is time-varying, different, and structurally significant; (2) during the pandemic, EPU has a significant short-term negative shock on China's gross exports and export to OBOR/RCEP members, and this shock is especially big in the case of global EPU. In the post-pandemic era, China should strengthen pandemic control and economic risk monitoring, continue with execution of multilateral FTAs and create a sustainably stable export trade environment.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Front Public Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Fpubh.2021.788171

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pandemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Front Public Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Fpubh.2021.788171