Assessing vaccination priorities for different ages and age-specific vaccination strategies of COVID-19 using an SEIR modelling approach.
PLoS One
; 16(12): e0261236, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1581757
ABSTRACT
In the past year, the global epidemic situation is still not optimistic, showing a trend of continuous expansion. With the research and application of vaccines, there is an urgent need to develop some optimal vaccination strategies. How to make a reasonable vaccination strategy to determine the priority of vaccination under the limited vaccine resources to control the epidemic and reduce human casualties? We build a dynamic model with vaccination which is extended the classical SEIR model. By fitting the epidemic data of three countries-China, Brazil, Indonesia, we have evaluated age-specific vaccination strategy for the number of infections and deaths. Furthermore, we have evaluated the impact of age-specific vaccination strategies on the number of the basic reproduction number. At last, we also have evaluated the different age structure of the vaccination priority. It shows that giving priority to vaccination of young people can control the number of infections, while giving priority to vaccination of the elderly can greatly reduce the number of deaths in most cases. Furthermore, we have found that young people should be mainly vaccinated to reduce the number of infections. When the emphasis is on reducing the number of deaths, it is important to focus vaccination on the elderly. Simulations suggest that appropriate age-specific vaccination strategies can effectively control the epidemic, both in terms of the number of infections and deaths.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19 Vaccines
/
COVID-19
/
Health Priorities
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Qualitative research
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Asia
/
Brazil
Language:
English
Journal:
PLoS One
Journal subject:
Science
/
Medicine
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
JOURNAL.PONE.0261236
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