A tentative assessment of the changes in transmissibility and fatality risk associated with Beta SARS-CoV-2 variants in South Africa: an ecological study.

ABSTRACT

The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Beta (B.1.351) variants challenged the control of COVID-19 pandemic. The numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths and SARS-CoV-2 sequences in South Africa were collected. We reconstructed the variant-specified reproduction numbers (R t) and delay-adjusted case fatality ratio (CFR) to examine the changes in transmissibility and fatality risk of Beta over non-Beta variants. We estimated that Beta variants were 41% (95%CI 16, 73) more transmissible and 53% (95%CI 6, 108) more fatal than non-Beta variants. Higher risks of infection and fatality might lead to increasing volumes of infections and critical patients.

Impacts The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Beta (B.1.351) variants, which were firstly reported in South Africa, challenged the control of COVID-19 pandemic.Using the national-wide COVID-19 cases and SARS-CoV-2 sequences data, Beta variants were estimated 41% more transmissible and 53% more fatal than non-Beta variants in South Africa.Higher risks of infection and fatality might lead to increasing volumes of infections and critical patients.