Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories.
Sci Rep
; 11(1): 24124, 2021 12 16.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1585805
ABSTRACT
The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Algorithms
/
Basic Reproduction Number
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-021-03126-w
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