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Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories.
Kirkegaard, Julius B; Sneppen, Kim.
  • Kirkegaard JB; Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark. julius.kirkegaard@nbi.ku.dk.
  • Sneppen K; Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 24124, 2021 12 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1585805
ABSTRACT
The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Algorithms / Basic Reproduction Number / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Models, Theoretical Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-021-03126-w

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Algorithms / Basic Reproduction Number / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Models, Theoretical Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-021-03126-w