Holistic risk assessment of container shipping service based on Bayesian Network Modelling

ABSTRACT

Container shipping makes significant contribution to the global economy and is confronted with various hazards and risks especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. These risks can disrupt resilient container shipping service, leading to further deterioration of the global economy. Hence, it is vital to develop resilient container shipping service, which is associated with being on-time, safe, and hassle-free. Theoretically, this research identifies 28 root risks using the PESTLE framework, conducts risk assessment using a hybrid method comprising failure modes and effects analysis, evidential reasoning, and rule-based Bayesian network. A three-hierarchy Bayesian network model is established. The results reveal that economic, political, and technical risks are the most threatening risks affecting resilient container shipping service. Moreover, the holistic container shipping risk is most sensitive to environmental risks. Managerially, this research provides container shipping companies with guidance of drafting risk mitigation plans with economic risks and political risks as priorities.