Factors affecting COVID-19 cases before epidemic peaks.
Gac Sanit
; 35 Suppl 2: S103-S106, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1587741
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted people's normal life as a result of strict policies applied to slow down the pandemic. To find out how extensive the virus spread is, most countries increase their daily testing rates.METHOD:
This simple modelling work uses stringency index and daily testing (including the lagged version up to the previous 14 days) to predict daily COVID-19 cases in India and Indonesia. A Stepwise Multiple Regression (SWMR) subroutine is used in this modelling to select factors based on a 0.01 significant level affecting daily COVID-19 cases before the epidemic peaks.RESULT:
The models have high predictability close to 94% (Indonesia) and 99% (India). Increasing number of daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is associated with the country's increased testing capacity. On the other hand, stringency indices play more important role in determining India's daily COVID-19 cases. CLOCLUSION Our finding shows that one question remains to be answered as to why testing and strict policy differ in determining daily cases in both Asian countries.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Gac Sanit
Journal subject:
Public Health
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.GACETA.2021.10.007
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