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Estimating the effect of timetabling decisions on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in medium-to-large engineering schools in Canada: an agent-based modelling study.
Brennan, Robert W; Nelson, Nancy; Paul, Robyn.
  • Brennan RW; Department of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering (Brennan, Paul), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Engineering and Information Technology (Nelson), Conestoga University, Cambridge, Ont. rbrennan@ucalgary.ca.
  • Nelson N; Department of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering (Brennan, Paul), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Engineering and Information Technology (Nelson), Conestoga University, Cambridge, Ont.
  • Paul R; Department of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering (Brennan, Paul), University of Calgary, Calgary, Alta.; Department of Engineering and Information Technology (Nelson), Conestoga University, Cambridge, Ont.
CMAJ Open ; 9(4): E1252-E1259, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1591924
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

During the COVID-19 pandemic, universities transitioned to primarily online delivery, and it is important to understand what implications the transition back to in-person activities may have on spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the student population. The specific aim of our study was to provide insights into the effect of timetabling decisions on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a population of undergraduate engineering students.

METHODS:

We developed an agent-based modelling simulation that used a Canadian first-year undergraduate engineering program with an enrolment of 180 students in 5 courses of 12.7 weeks in length. Each course involved 150 minutes of lectures and 110 minutes of tutorials or laboratories per week. We considered several online and in-person timetabling scenarios with different scheduling frequencies and section sizes, in combination with surveillance and testing interventions. The study was conducted from May 1 to Aug. 31, 2021.

RESULTS:

When timetabling interventions were applied, we found a reduction in the mean number of students who were infected and that a containment of widespread outbreaks could be achieved. Timetables with online lectures and small (1/6 class capacity) tutorial or laboratory sections reduced the mean number of students who were infected by 83% and reduced the risk of large outbreaks that occurred with in-person lectures. We also found that spread of SARS-CoV-2 was less sensitive to class size than to contact frequency when a biweekly timetable was implemented (i.e., alternating online and in-person sections on a biweekly basis). Including a contact-tracing policy and randomized testing to the timetabling interventions helped to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 further. Vaccination coverage had the largest effect on reducing the number of students who were infected.

INTERPRETATION:

Our modelling showed that by taking advantage of timetabling opportunities and applying appropriate interventions (contact tracing, randomized testing and vaccination), SARS-CoV-2 infections may be averted and disruptions (case isolations) reduced. However, given the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, transitions from online to in-person classes should proceed cautiously from small biweekly classes, for example, to manage risk.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Universities / Decision Making, Organizational / Infection Control / Engineering / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Adult / Humans / Young adult Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: CMAJ Open Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Universities / Decision Making, Organizational / Infection Control / Engineering / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Adult / Humans / Young adult Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: CMAJ Open Year: 2021 Document Type: Article