Estimating the effect of timetabling decisions on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in medium-to-large engineering schools in Canada: an agent-based modelling study.
CMAJ Open
; 9(4): E1252-E1259, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1591924
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
During the COVID-19 pandemic, universities transitioned to primarily online delivery, and it is important to understand what implications the transition back to in-person activities may have on spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the student population. The specific aim of our study was to provide insights into the effect of timetabling decisions on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a population of undergraduate engineering students.METHODS:
We developed an agent-based modelling simulation that used a Canadian first-year undergraduate engineering program with an enrolment of 180 students in 5 courses of 12.7 weeks in length. Each course involved 150 minutes of lectures and 110 minutes of tutorials or laboratories per week. We considered several online and in-person timetabling scenarios with different scheduling frequencies and section sizes, in combination with surveillance and testing interventions. The study was conducted from May 1 to Aug. 31, 2021.RESULTS:
When timetabling interventions were applied, we found a reduction in the mean number of students who were infected and that a containment of widespread outbreaks could be achieved. Timetables with online lectures and small (1/6 class capacity) tutorial or laboratory sections reduced the mean number of students who were infected by 83% and reduced the risk of large outbreaks that occurred with in-person lectures. We also found that spread of SARS-CoV-2 was less sensitive to class size than to contact frequency when a biweekly timetable was implemented (i.e., alternating online and in-person sections on a biweekly basis). Including a contact-tracing policy and randomized testing to the timetabling interventions helped to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 further. Vaccination coverage had the largest effect on reducing the number of students who were infected.INTERPRETATION:
Our modelling showed that by taking advantage of timetabling opportunities and applying appropriate interventions (contact tracing, randomized testing and vaccination), SARS-CoV-2 infections may be averted and disruptions (case isolations) reduced. However, given the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, transitions from online to in-person classes should proceed cautiously from small biweekly classes, for example, to manage risk.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Universities
/
Decision Making, Organizational
/
Infection Control
/
Engineering
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Adult
/
Humans
/
Young adult
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
CMAJ Open
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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