Development of a scoring system for the prediction of in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients.
Clin Epidemiol Glob Health
; 12: 100871, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1593859
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The aim of this study is to develop and validate a scoring system as a tool for predicting the in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients in early stage of disease.METHODS:
This retrospective cohort study, conducted on 893 COVID-19 patients in Tehran from February 18 to July 20, 2020. Potential factors were chosen via stepwise selection and multivariable logistic regression model. Cross-validation method was employed to assess the predictive performance of the model as well as the scoring system such as discrimination, calibration, and validity indices.RESULTS:
The COVID-19 patients' median age was 63 yrs (54.98% male) and 233 (26.09%) patients expired during the study. The scoring system was developed based on 8 selected variables age ≥55 yrs (OR = 5.67, 95% CI 3.25-9.91), males (OR = 1.51, 95% CI 1.007-2.29), ICU need (OR = 16.32, 95% CI 10.13-26.28), pulse rate >90 (OR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.26-2.83), lymphocytes <17% (OR = 2.33, 95%CI 1.54-3.50), RBC ≤4, 10 6/L (OR = 2.10, 95% CI 1.35-3.26), LDH >700 U/L (OR = 1.68, 95%CI 1.13-2.51) and troponin I level >0.03 ng/mL (OR = 1.75, 95%CI 1.17-2.62). The AUC and the accuracy of scoring system after cross-validation were 79.4% and 79.89%, respectively.CONCLUSION:
This study showed that developed scoring system has a good performance and can use to help physicians for identifying high-risk patients in early stage of disease .
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Language:
English
Journal:
Clin Epidemiol Glob Health
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.cegh.2021.100871
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