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The impact of temperature on the transmissibility potential and virulence of COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan.
Yamasaki, Lisa; Murayama, Hiroaki; Hashizume, Masahiro.
  • Yamasaki L; Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan. lisa@m.u-tokyo.ac.jp.
  • Murayama H; School of Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki, Nagasaki, 852-8523, Japan. lisa@m.u-tokyo.ac.jp.
  • Hashizume M; School of Medicine, International University of Health and Welfare, Kozunomori 4-3, Narita City, Chiba, 286-8686, Japan.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 24477, 2021 12 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1852481
ABSTRACT
Assessing the impact of temperature on COVID-19 epidemiology is critical for implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, few studies have accounted for the nature of contagious diseases, i.e., their dependent happenings. We aimed to quantify the impact of temperature on the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Tokyo, Japan, employing two epidemiological measurements of transmissibility and severity the effective reproduction number ([Formula see text]) and case fatality risk (CFR). We estimated the [Formula see text] and time-delay adjusted CFR and to subsequently assess the nonlinear and delayed effect of temperature on [Formula see text] and time-delay adjusted CFR. For [Formula see text] at low temperatures, the cumulative relative risk (RR) at the first temperature percentile (3.3 °C) was 1.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-1.7). As for the virulence to humans, moderate cold temperatures were associated with higher CFR, and CFR also increased as the temperature rose. The cumulative RR at the 10th and 99th percentiles of temperature (5.8 °C and 30.8 °C) for CFR were 3.5 (95% CI 1.3-10.0) and 6.4 (95% CI 4.1-10.1). Our results suggest the importance to take precautions to avoid infection in both cold and warm seasons to avoid severe cases of COVID-19. The results and our proposed approach will also help in assessing the possible seasonal course of COVID-19 in the future.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Temperature / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-021-04242-3

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Temperature / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-021-04242-3