The mathematical foundation of a software package for assessing the probability of a viral infection in massively occupied buildings

ABSTRACT

The current COVID-19 pandemic has shown that, decision-making authorities lack tools that would allow them to make informed decisions on the introduction of quarantine measures related to either holdingor canceling mass events in buildings. Often this leads either to the introduction of excessive (which leads to a worsening of the economic situation) or insufficient measures (which leads to a worsening of the epidemiological situation). This article describes the mathematical basic principles aimed at creating a software package for assessing the likelihood of contracting a viral infection transmitted by airborne droplets in massively occupied buildings. Evaluation of the likelihood of COVID-19 infection in public places is possible based on a joint analysis of the results of the people movement simulation, air circulation and the spread of aerosols from a carrier of the infection, taking into account the applied methods of protection (masks, ventilation). It is required to develop methods for assessing the danger of COVID-19 infection from a carrier of the virus and the methods of protection used (masks, ventilation) in specific public places. Simultaneously, the movement of people in accordance with the mode of operation, air movement (including ventilation systems) and the spread of respiratory aerosols needs to be accounted for. © FRC ICT, 2021