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Pooled testing efficiency increases with test frequency.
Augenblick, Ned; Kolstad, Jonathan; Obermeyer, Ziad; Wang, Ao.
  • Augenblick N; Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720; augenblick@berkeley.edu.
  • Kolstad J; Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
  • Obermeyer Z; Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
  • Wang A; School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94704.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(2)2022 01 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1602775
ABSTRACT
Pooled testing increases efficiency by grouping individual samples and testing the combined sample, such that many individuals can be cleared with one negative test. This short paper demonstrates that pooled testing is particularly advantageous in the setting of pandemics, given repeated testing, rapid spread, and uncertain risk. Repeated testing mechanically lowers the infection probability at the time of the next test by removing positives from the population. This effect alone means that increasing frequency by x times only increases expected tests by around [Formula see text] However, this calculation omits a further benefit of frequent testing Removing infections from the population lowers intragroup transmission, which lowers infection probability and generates further efficiency. For this reason, increasing testing frequency can paradoxically reduce total testing cost. Our calculations are based on the assumption that infection rates are known, but predicting these rates is challenging in a fast-moving pandemic. However, given that frequent testing naturally suppresses the mean and variance of infection rates, we show that our results are very robust to uncertainty and misprediction. Finally, we note that efficiency further increases given natural sampling pools (e.g., workplaces, classrooms) that induce correlated risk via local transmission. We conclude that frequent pooled testing using natural groupings is a cost-effective way to provide consistent testing of a population to suppress infection risk in a pandemic.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Mass Screening Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Year: 2022 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Mass Screening Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: English Year: 2022 Document Type: Article