Modeling Early Phases of COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Italy and Its Implication for Outbreak Diffusion.
Front Public Health
; 9: 724362, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1604952
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked an intense debate about the hidden factors underlying the dynamics of the outbreak. Several computational models have been proposed to inform effective social and healthcare strategies. Crucially, the predictive validity of these models often depends upon incorporating behavioral and social responses to infection. Among these tools, the analytic framework known as "dynamic causal modeling" (DCM) has been applied to the COVID-19 pandemic, shedding new light on the factors underlying the dynamics of the outbreak. We have applied DCM to data from northern Italian regions, the first areas in Europe to contend with the outbreak, and analyzed the predictive validity of the model and also its suitability in highlighting the hidden factors governing the pandemic diffusion. By taking into account data from the beginning of the pandemic, the model could faithfully predict the dynamics of outbreak diffusion varying from region to region. The DCM appears to be a reliable tool to investigate the mechanisms governing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 to identify the containment and control strategies that could efficiently be used to counteract further waves of infection.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Front Public Health
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Fpubh.2021.724362
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