Estimating COVID Risk During a Period of Pandemic Decline.
Front Public Health
; 9: 744819, 2021.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1605491
ABSTRACT
Background:
Many parts of the world that succeeded in suppressing epidemic coronavirus spread in 2020 have been caught out by recent changes in the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Australia's early success in suppressing COVID-19 resulted in lengthy periods without community transmission. However, a slow vaccine rollout leaves this geographically isolated population vulnerable to leakage of new variants from quarantine, which requires internal travel restrictions, disruptive lockdowns, contact tracing and testing surges.Methods:
To assist long term sustainment of limited public health resources, we sought a method of continuous, real-time COVID-19 risk monitoring that could be used to alert non-specialists to the level of epidemic risk on a sub-national scale. After an exploratory data assessment, we selected four COVID-19 metrics used by public health in their periodic threat assessments, applied a business continuity matrix and derived a numeric indicator; the COVID-19 Risk Estimate (CRE), to generate a daily spot CRE, a 3 day net rise and a seven day rolling average. We used open source data updated daily from all Australian states and territories to monitor the CRE for over a year.Results:
Upper and lower CRE thresholds were established for the CRE seven day rolling average, corresponding to risk of sustained and potential outbreak propagation, respectively. These CRE thresholds were used in a real-time map of Australian COVID-19 risk estimate distribution by state and territory.Conclusions:
The CRE toolkit we developed complements other COVID-19 risk management techniques and provides an early indication of emerging threats to business continuity.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Oceania
Language:
English
Journal:
Front Public Health
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Fpubh.2021.744819
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