Meteorological factors' effects on COVID-19 show seasonality and spatiality in Brazil.

ABSTRACT

The meteorological conditions may affect COVID-19 transmission. However, the roles of seasonality and macro-climate are still contentious due to the limited time series for early-stage studies. We studied meteorological factors' effects on COVID-19 transmission in Brazil from February 25 to November 15, 2020. We aimed to explore whether this impact showed seasonal characteristics and spatial variations related to the macro-climate. We applied two-way fixed-effect models to identify the effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 transmission and used spatial analysis to explore their spatial-temporal characteristics with a relatively long-time span. The results showed that cold, dry and windless conditions aggravated COVID-19 transmission. The daily average temperature, humidity, and wind speed negatively affected the daily new cases. Humidity and temperature played a dominant role in this process. For the time series, the influences of meteorological conditions on COVID-19 had a periodic fluctuation of 3-4 months (in line with the seasons in Brazil). The turning points of this fluctuation occurred at the turn of seasons. Spatially, the negative effects of temperature and humidity on COVID-19 transmission clustered in the northeastern and central parts of Brazil. This is consistent with the range of arid climate types. Overall, the seasonality and similar climate types should be considered to estimate the spatial-temporal COVID-19 patterns. Winter is a critical time to be alert for COVID-19, especially in the northern part of Brazil.