Using an age-structured COVID-19 epidemic model and data to model virulence evolution in Wuhan, China.
J Biol Dyn
; 16(1): 14-28, 2022 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1612382
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 is a disease caused by infection with the virus 2019-nCoV, a single-stranded RNA virus. During the infection and transmission processes, the virus evolves and mutates rapidly, though the disease has been quickly controlled in Wuhan by 'Fangcang' hospitals. To model the virulence evolution, in this paper, we formulate a new age structured epidemic model. Under the tradeoff hypothesis, two special scenarios are used to study the virulence evolution by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. Results show that, before 'Fangcang' hospitals, two scenarios are both consistent with the data. After 'Fangcang' hospitals, Scenario I rather than Scenario II is consistent with the data. It is concluded that the transmission pattern of COVID-19 in Wuhan obey Scenario I rather than Scenario II. Theoretical analysis show that, in Scenario I, shortening the value of L (diagnosis period) can result in an enormous selective pressure on the evolution of 2019-nCoV.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
J Biol Dyn
Journal subject:
Biology
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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