The dynamics of early-stage transmission of COVID-19: A novel quantification of the role of global temperature.

ABSTRACT

The global outbreak of COVID-19 has emerged as one of the most devastating and challenging threats to humanity. As many frontline workers are fighting against this disease, researchers are struggling to obtain a better understanding of the pathways and challenges of this pandemic. This paper evaluates the concept that the transmission of COVID-19 is intrinsically linked to temperature. Some complex nonlinear functional forms, such as the cubic function, are introduced to the empirical models to understand the interaction between temperature and the "growth" in the number of infected cases. An accurate quantitative interaction between temperature and the confirmed COVID-19 cases is obtained as log(Y) = -0.000146(temp_H)3 + 0.007410(temp_H)2 - 0.063332 temp_H + 7.793842, where Y is the periodic growth in confirmed COVID-19 cases, and temp_H is the maximum daily temperature. This equation alone may be the first confirmed way to measure the quantitative interaction between temperature and human transmission of COVID-19. In addition, four important regions are identified in terms of maximum daily temperature (in Celsius) to understand the dynamics in the transmission of COVID-19 related to temperature. First, transmission decreases within the range of -50°C to 5.02°C. Second, the transmission accelerates in the range of 5.02°C to 16.92°C. Essentially, this is the temperature range for an outbreak. Third, transmission increases more slowly in the range of 16.92°C to 28.82°C. Within this range, the number of infections continue to grow, but at a slower pace. Finally, transmission decreases in the range of 28.82°C to 50°C. Thus, according to this hypothesis, the threshold of 16.92°C is the most critical, as the point at which infection rate is the greatest. This result sheds light on the mechanism in the cyclicity of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. The implications of these results on policy issues are also discussed in relation to a possible cyclical fluctuation pattern between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.