The Second COVID Wave Washes Over New York State

ABSTRACT

By Oct 30, 2020 nine NYS counties had over 3% positive tests. By Nov 9, 29 counties exceeded 3% positive. By Nov 29, 45 counties out of 62 did. The contagion showed classic spatial diffusion from epicenters with great rapidity. Data on percent of positive COVID tests for 16 days out of 57 between Oct 30 and the Dec 25 crest showed no SE association with percent positive. The 31 rural counties often had significantly higher means and medians than the 31 urban. The sole factor frequently associating with percent positive was 2020 percent Trump vote. The Trump vote signaled risk behaviors that led to epicenters in rural counties spreading COVID to the rest of the state. After early January 2021, the means and medians declined as rapidly as they had built up to the crest, an indication that behaviors changed massively toward interventions, especially in the rural, Trump-voting counties. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.