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Investigating the association between COVID-19 vaccination and care home outbreak frequency and duration.
Bradley, D T; Murphy, S; McWilliams, P; Arnold, S; Lavery, S; Murphy, J; de Lusignan, S; Hobbs, R; Tsang, R S M; Akbari, A; Torabi, F; Beggs, J; Chuter, A; Shi, T; Vasileiou, E; Robertson, C; Sheikh, A; Reid, H; O'Reilly, D.
  • Bradley DT; Public Health Agency, Belfast, UK; Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
  • Murphy S; Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK. Electronic address: siobhan.murphy@qub.ac.uk.
  • McWilliams P; Strategic Investment Board, Belfast, UK.
  • Arnold S; Public Health Agency, Belfast, UK.
  • Lavery S; Public Health Agency, Belfast, UK.
  • Murphy J; Public Health Agency, Belfast, UK.
  • de Lusignan S; Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Hobbs R; Nuffield Department of Health Care Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Tsang RSM; Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Akbari A; Population Data Science and Health Data Research UK, Swansea University, Swansea, UK.
  • Torabi F; Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, UK.
  • Beggs J; BREATHE- The Health Data Research Hub For Respiratory Health, UK.
  • Chuter A; BREATHE- The Health Data Research Hub For Respiratory Health, UK.
  • Shi T; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
  • Vasileiou E; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
  • Robertson C; Public Health Scotland, UK; University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK.
  • Sheikh A; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; BREATHE- The Health Data Research Hub For Respiratory Health, UK.
  • Reid H; Public Health Agency, Belfast, UK.
  • O'Reilly D; Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
Public Health ; 203: 110-115, 2022 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1630605
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES:

At the end of 2020, many countries commenced a vaccination programme against SARS-CoV-2. Public health authorities aim to prevent and interrupt outbreaks of infectious disease in social care settings. We aimed to investigate the association between the introduction of the vaccination programme and the frequency and duration of COVID-19 outbreaks in Northern Ireland (NI). STUDY

DESIGN:

We undertook an ecological study using routinely available national data.

METHODS:

We used Poisson regression to measure the relationship between the number of RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes, and as a measure of community COVID-19 prevalence, the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey estimated the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 in NI. We estimated the change in this relationship and estimated the expected number of care home outbreaks in the absence of the vaccination programme. A Cox proportional hazards model estimated the hazard ratio of a confirmed COVID-19 care home outbreak closure.

RESULTS:

Care home outbreaks reduced by two-thirds compared to expected following the introduction of the vaccination programme, from a projected 1625 COVID-19 outbreaks (95% prediction interval 1553-1694) between 7 December 2020 and 28 October 2021 to an observed 501. We estimated an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.53 of the outbreak closure assuming a 21-day lag for immunity.

CONCLUSIONS:

These findings describe the association of the vaccination with a reduction in outbreak frequency and duration across NI care homes. This indicates probable reduced harm and disruption from COVID-19 in social care settings following vaccination. Future research using individual level data from care home residents will be needed to investigate the effectiveness of the vaccines and the duration of their effects.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Vaccines / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Public Health Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.puhe.2021.12.010

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: COVID-19 Vaccines / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Public Health Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.puhe.2021.12.010