Do not forget the children: a model-based analysis on the potential impact of COVID-19-associated interruptions in paediatric HIV prevention and care.
J Int AIDS Soc
; 25(1): e25864, 2022 01.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1632292
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected women and children globally, disrupting antiretroviral therapy (ART) services and exacerbating pre-existing barriers to care for both pregnant women and paediatric populations.METHODS:
We used the Spectrum modelling package and the CEPAC-Pediatric model to project the impact of COVID-19-associated care disruptions on three key populations in the 21 Global Plan priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa (1) pregnant and breastfeeding women living with HIV and their children, (2) all children (aged 0-14 years) living with HIV (CLWH), regardless of their engagement in care and (3) CLWH who were engaged in care and on ART prior to the start of the pandemic. We projected clinical outcomes over the 12-month period of 1 March 2020 to 1 March 2021.RESULTS:
Compared to a scenario with no care disruption, in a 3-month lockdown with complete service disruption, followed by 3 additional months of partial (50%) service disruption, a projected 755,400 women would have received PMTCT care (a 21% decrease), 187,800 new paediatric HIV infections would have occurred (a 77% increase) and 516,800 children would have received ART (a 35% decrease). For children on ART as of March 2020, we projected 507,200 would have experienced ART failure (an 80% increase). Additionally, a projected 88,400 AIDS-related deaths would have occurred (a 27% increase) between March 2020 and March 2021, with 51,700 of those deaths occurring among children engaged in care as of March 2020 (a 54% increase).CONCLUSIONS:
While efforts will continue to curb morbidity and mortality stemming directly from COVID-19 itself, it is critical that providers also consider the immediate and indirect harms of this pandemic, particularly among vulnerable populations. Well-informed, timely action is critical to meet the health needs of pregnant women and children if the global community is to maintain momentum towards an AIDS-free generation.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
HIV Infections
/
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Child
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Pregnancy
Language:
English
Journal:
J Int AIDS Soc
Journal subject:
SINDROME DA IMUNODEFICIENCIA ADQUIRIDA (AIDS)
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Jia2.25864
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